The most consequential developments since the previous briefing are the widening threat to Black Sea commercial shipping from the Russia–Ukraine war, a sharp escalation of fighting in Ethiopia’s Tigray region, and a Saudi-backed counteroffensive against the Houthis around the strategically vital Bab el-Mandeb Strait. European governments are also becoming more explicit in describing Russian hybrid operations as a direct security threat, while the Iran conflict continues to reshape global energy logistics. Separately, shifting trade and energy relationships are adding another dimension to major-power competition.
1. Black Sea War Moves Closer to International Shipping Routes
Commercial shipping in and around the Black Sea is increasingly exposed to the consequences of the Russia–Ukraine war as both sides expand attacks affecting ports, maritime infrastructure and economic targets.
The growing involvement of internationally owned and flagged vessels is particularly important because the Black Sea remains a major route for Ukrainian agricultural exports and other international trade.
Ukraine attributes recent attacks on commercial shipping to Russia. Moscow has separately said it has targeted vessels that it alleges were transporting military equipment and supplies for Ukraine. Claims concerning individual attacks require careful attribution because the circumstances are not always independently established.
Geopolitical significance: Persistent danger to commercial shipping could affect grain exports, insurance costs and confidence in Black Sea trade routes. Incidents close to NATO members such as Romania also illustrate how easily the economic and maritime dimensions of the Ukraine war can approach alliance territory without necessarily constituting a direct attack on NATO.
2. European Governments Harden Their Assessment of Russian Hybrid Warfare
European governments are increasingly treating alleged Russian cyber operations, sabotage, drone activity and interference with critical infrastructure as part of a broader security confrontation with Moscow.
Germany’s foreign intelligence leadership has warned that the confrontation with Russia has entered a more dangerous phase. European Union officials have similarly highlighted an increase in alleged Russian hybrid activities.
Russia rejects Western accusations that it is conducting a coordinated sabotage campaign against European countries.
Geopolitical significance: European security policy is increasingly treating hybrid warfare as part of the continuum of military competition rather than as a separate peacetime problem. Cyberattacks, sabotage, drones and interference with critical infrastructure can impose strategic costs while remaining below the threshold that would clearly trigger NATO’s collective-defence mechanisms. This creates difficult questions concerning deterrence and proportional responses.
3. Fighting in Ethiopia’s Tigray Region Raises the Risk of Regional War
Renewed fighting in northern Ethiopia has produced the most serious confrontation between federal forces and Tigrayan forces since the 2020–2022 civil war.
The strategic environment is considerably more complicated than during the previous conflict. Ethiopia and neighbouring Eritrea, which fought on the same side during much of the earlier war, are now increasingly hostile towards one another.
Ethiopia has accused Eritrea of supporting its opponents, an allegation Eritrea denies. Ethiopian officials have also accused Sudan and Egypt of involvement; both countries deny interfering.
The dispute intersects with Ethiopia’s longstanding desire for direct access to the Red Sea, its disagreements with Egypt and Sudan over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, Sudan’s civil war and competing Saudi and Emirati interests across the Horn of Africa.
Geopolitical significance: A renewed Ethiopian war could become substantially more regionalized than the previous conflict. Tigray, Ethiopia–Eritrea hostility, Red Sea access, Nile water politics and the Sudan conflict increasingly form part of an interconnected security system. Escalation could therefore threaten stability across northeast Africa and the strategically important Red Sea corridor.
4. Saudi-Backed Forces Challenge Houthi Control Around Bab el-Mandeb
Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces launched a major offensive against Iran-aligned Houthi forces around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
Government forces reported significant territorial gains along the coast towards Mocha, supported by Saudi air strikes. The Houthis disputed some government claims and simultaneously reported attacks against Saudi airports, military installations and energy infrastructure.
The exact extent of territorial control remains contested, and some battlefield claims from both sides cannot be independently verified.
The renewed fighting has already worsened Yemen’s humanitarian crisis, with the UN migration agency reporting large-scale displacement since major combat resumed.
Geopolitical significance: Bab el-Mandeb is one of the world’s most important maritime chokepoints, connecting the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and Indian Ocean. Control of territory overlooking the strait directly affects the ability to threaten commercial shipping. The Saudi-backed offensive therefore has consequences extending well beyond Yemen, particularly for trade and energy flows between Asia, the Middle East and Europe.
5. Iran Conflict Shifts from Oil Availability to Oil Logistics
Middle Eastern crude exports have recovered significantly despite continuing instability associated with the Iran conflict.
Reuters reported that crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz recently recovered to around 80% of their pre-war level on a seven-day average. Middle Eastern exports exceeded pre-war levels on several days in late September.
Oil prices nevertheless remain high. Brent crude was trading at approximately $100 per barrel on 6 October.
The principal problem is increasingly logistics rather than an absolute shortage of crude. Tanker availability, insurance costs, longer routes, transshipment arrangements and reduced refining capacity are creating major bottlenecks.
Tanker rates between the Middle East and Asia have risen dramatically compared with the beginning of the year.
Geopolitical significance: The development illustrates an important distinction between energy production and energy security. Oil can exist in sufficient quantities while still becoming expensive or difficult to transport and process. Maritime chokepoints, tanker capacity, insurance and refining infrastructure are therefore becoming as strategically important as oil production itself.
Overall Geopolitical Picture
The most important cross-cutting trend is the growing strategic importance of geography and infrastructure. Black Sea shipping routes, Bab el-Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz demonstrate that ports, maritime corridors, pipelines and chokepoints are increasingly central to geopolitical competition.
A second trend is the continued expansion of conflict into the grey zone between peace and conventional war. European governments increasingly describe cyber operations, drones, sabotage and infrastructure interference as components of strategic competition with Russia. These activities can impose substantial costs without necessarily crossing traditional thresholds for military retaliation.
Finally, recent developments reinforce the increasing overlap between military security and economic security. Commercial vessels, oil tankers, refineries, ports, fuel inventories, electricity systems and logistics networks are no longer peripheral to geopolitical competition. They are becoming central components of national and international power.
The emerging international system is consequently characterized not simply by competition between major powers, but by a dense network of regional conflicts, maritime chokepoints, industrial capabilities, economic coercion, hybrid operations and shifting diplomatic alignments.
Source Links
- Reuters — Yemeni government forces drive Houthis from areas around Bab el-Mandeb Strait
- Reuters — Oil prices balance recovering Middle Eastern exports against continuing Gulf tensions
- Reuters — Analysis: Oil’s emerging problem is logistics rather than simply crude supply
- Reuters — Renewed fighting in Ethiopia’s Tigray region risks developing into a wider regional war
- Reuters — Saudi Arabia prepares offensive against Houthis to break Red Sea chokehold